s we mentioned last week, The Shortlist Finalists have been announced. While mostly predictable, there were a few surprises. For those of you who have no idea what the Shortlist is, here are the basic details: An album must have been released in the US between July 1 and June 30 and it could not have sold 500,000 copies by the date of its nomination. A panel of "experts" nominate their choices, and that becomes the Longlist of nominees. It is then shrunken to ten. Those are the basics.

I thought I'd take this chance to handicap the odds of each CD, and let you know who should be winning, and maybe who was left out.
The finalists in no particular order:

Dizzee Rascal - Boy in Da Corner
Boy in Da Corner won the British Mercury Prize last year -- The very award the Shortlist is somewhat modeled after. This immediately makes him a front-runner. But at the same time, the Shortlist folks don't wanna look like a bunch of followers. And for the majority of US listeners, Dizzee isn't singing in English, which makes it a tough sell. Yet, British hip-hop is mesmerizing; much like a car crash.
Odds: 5-1

Wilco - A Ghost is Born
Nah, I just don't see it. The buzz on this album quickly went away. Perhaps that is because half of the world downloaded the album long before it was officially released. The bottom line is it's not as good as Yankee Foxtrot Hotel, which might have had a chance this year. In other words, no way.
Odds: 20-1

Nellie McKay - Get Away From Me
I think Nellie should be disqualified. Apparently her father has been interviewed by numerous media outlets and has gone on record as saying Nellie has lied about a good bit of the details in her life, including her age. So maybe 19(her claim)to 22(her real age) isn't much, but it still makes me wonder what else she has lied about. For example, do we know this is even her voice? I smell some sort of Milli Vanilli conspiracy here. Cheaters never win.
Odds: 50-1

Ghostface Killah - The Pretty Toney Album
The Shortlist folks aren't big on 'keeping it real.' This is the first true US hip-hop album to be among the finalists since 2001, the first year of the Shortlist. I wonder if Ghostface even knows he was nominated? Pretty Toney is a solid album, but it would take a major turn by the powers that be in order for Ghostface to win. Plus, he just doesn't have the indie hip-hop charm Dizzee or Ms. Dynamite had (both Mercury prize winners).
Odds: 10-1

The Killers - Hot Fuss
There are way too many lurkers buying this CD. In other words, too many people who have heard one song and think they'll love the album. There are some other good songs here, but it is not as solid throughout. These guys are riding the wave, and that's great for them. KISS stations across the country are starting to play "Somebody Told Me." Remember when the Goo Goo Dolls used to be cool?
Odds: 15-1

Loretta Lynn - Van Lear Rose
This has got winner written all over it. It's this years comeback album, and it has got all the ingredients: an indie producer with serious cred (Jack White), an artist with a checkered and storied career (Lynn), no real singles to hook the casual fans and did we mention, Jack White? This is the test to see if everything this guy touches turns to gold or if this was too much of a stretch. Critics seem to love it -- not this one -- but have the hipsters caught on? Still, Loretta is a favorite
Odds: 3-1

Air - Talkie Walkie
The Shortlist loves their electronica. This is another case of it not even being the bands best work. I mean, it's a decent enough album, but top ten? A questionable inclusion at best. I was listening to this CD while vacationing in Chicago this weekend. It was kinda putting me to sleep. Or maybe I didn't even realize it was on. Either way, the Frenchies have no chance.
Odds: 20-1

The Streets - A Grand Don't Come For Free
Mike Skinner ia a loveable guy when he isn't overdoing the "I'm just like your mate" routine. I once read an article about his weekend in Miami for the Ultra Music Festival. I don't think he slept, he did enough ecstasy to take out a small college dorm, and vomitted all over the place, if i remember correctly. Come to think of it, I have a friend who did just that when we were last down there. I love Miami!
Odds: 8-1

Franz Ferdinand - Franz Ferdinand
I often wonder if these guys knew they'd be such a success with this album, if they would have had a different title for it? The only S/T on the list is also the odds on favorites. Franz won this year's Mercury Prize, to no one's surprise. And it would be a bit of an upset if they didn't take the Shortlist too. Nearly every song on the album is good enough to be a single. XM Radio, one of the Shortlist sponsors, literally plays them all. This is a very telling fact. I'm not saying I want them to win, but i think they probably should, and likely will.
Odds: 2-3

TV on the Radio - Desperate Youth, Bloodthirsty Babes
I think if the world worked perfectly, these fellas from NYC would walk away with the Shorty. (You heard me, the Shorty) But the world doesn't work that way. This is truely a groundbreaking album that has gone way too unnoticed. Yeah, most of you reading this probably have it, but not enough of your friends do. I think just being nominated will do wonders for these guys. Still, they have a shot, depending on the way the wind is blowing.
Odds: 4-1

So, there you have it. A full out dog fight between the coal-miner's daughter, and the Austrian Archdukes. With the possility that just maybe a longshot horse can sneek in.

Check out all the other details on the Shortlist here.

-e 9/27/04